Eriotstarbeliste allmaarajatiste ehitamise võrdlev analüüs erinevates geoloogilistes tingimustes [Magistritöö. Juhendaja: T. Tomberg]

Taking into account the lack of a civil shelter system in Estonia, it is necessary to analyze the possible protection measures against kinetic dangers in case of crisis situations. One possibility to protect the population in case of a crisis situation is to take shelter. In 1993, the government of Estonia decided it will not develop such shelters and from 1994–2019 the matter has not been dealt with. Therefore, there are no shelters or alternatives that can be used. Neither are there any norms in place for such facilities. Durability of existing buildings against kinetic dangers has also not been assessed. The question of the protection of people was raised again on the 15th of January 2016 when the concept of the protection of people was adopted by the Estonian government. According to this document, taking shelter is a vital means to save lives during crisis when evacuation is not possible without endangering one’s life and health and early warning does not work or cannot be used because of geographic restrictions.

Taking shelter must be an effective protection measure until the crisis has passed. In this thesis, crisis situation is defined as an armed conflict. According to Estonian government 23.08.2016 regulation no 106, a shelter is a permanent category C object (i.e. an important object for the purpose of national defense). The focus of this thesis is on the use of conventional weapons by the enemy and the possible protection measures in case of an air campaign considering that the early warning in such a scenario may be very short. Military analysis of armed conflicts during the past decade based on the data of defense forces was used to assess the capabilities of the enemy, possible targets and the possible impact of an attack. The prerequisite of this thesis was first the protection of people who work in key infrastructure in important populated places as the enemy might consider these locations as targets and second the protection of people outside buildings.

Based on the conclusions from risk analysis in case of an armed conflict, this thesis gives for the first time in Estonia three predesigned drafts of possible shelters and the preliminary time and resource assessment for their development. The solutions are designed for equal capacity and protection measures in different geological circumstances. It has been taken into account that the designed shelters can be used daily and when necessary, in a situation of crisis, put to use according to the needs of national security within 48 hours. Predesigned shelters are model solutions for possible new projects and development of these prototypes.

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