Subsidence prediction in Estonia's oil shale mines

This paper analysis the stability of the mining blocks in Estonian oil shale mines, where the room-and-pillar mining system is used. The pillars are arranged in a singular grid. The oil shale bed is embedded at the depth of 40-75 m. The processes in overburden rocks and pillars have caused the subsidence of the ground surface. The conditional thickness and sliding rectangle methods performed calculations. The results are presented by conditional thickness contours. Error does not exceed 4%. Model allows determining the parameters of spontaneous collapse of the pillars and surface subsidence. The surface subsidence parameters will be determined by conventional calculation scheme. Proposed method suits for stability analysis, failure prognosis and monitoring